Congressional Dish: CD225: Targets of the Free Marketeers (2024)

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Dec 21, 2020

While the focus of the world has been on the COVID-19 pandemic,Congress has been busy preparing a war authorization for theincoming Joe Biden administration. In this episode, we examine theadvice given to Congress in nine recent hearings to learn whichcountries are on the World Trade System naughty list, as Jenprepares to read the NDAA that's soon to become law.

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Hearing: THE BALKANS: POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS FOR THE NEXTADMINISTRATION, Committee on Foreign Affairs, December 8,2020

Watch on C-SPAN

Watch on Youtube

Witnesses:

  • Madeleine Albright
    • Chairman of the National Democratic Institute
    • Chairman of the Albright Stonebridge Group, a global strategyfirm
    • Chairman of Albright Capital Management , an investmentadvisory firm
    • Member of the Council on Foreign Relations
    • 2003-2005: Member of the Board of Directors of the NYSE
    • 1997-2001: Secretary of State
    • 1978-1981: National Security Council Staff
  • Daniel Serwer
    • Director of American Foreign Policy and Conflict Management atthe School of Advanced International Studies at Johns HopkinsUniversity
    • Former Vice President at the US Institute of Peace
    • Former Minister Counselor at the State Department during theClinton years
  • Janusz Bugajski
    • Senior Fellow at the Jamestown Foundation
    • Former Senior Fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis(CEPA)
    • Hosts a tv show in the Balkans
Transcript:

40:03 Rep. Eliot Engel (NY): Serbiahas been importing Russian fighters and tanks and conductingmilitary exercises with the Russian Army. A US Defense Departmentreport told us that Belgrade's drift towards Moscow has mostlyoccurred since President Vučić took power. The same time democraticspace in Serbia has shrunk in recent years. Freedom House describesSerbia as a, 'hybrid regime', not a democracy because of decliningstandards in governance, justice, elections and media freedom. IfSerbia wants to become part of the European Union, and the NorthAtlantic family of nations, it needs to get off the fence andembrace a Western path.

56:17 Madeleine Albright: As you know,Mr. Chairman, the President Elect has been personally engaged inthe Balkans since his time in the Senate. And he was one of themost outspoken leaders in Congress calling for the United States tohelp end the complex and I was honored to work closely with himthroughout my time in office. And I know that he understands theregion and its importance for the United States. The nationalsecurity team that President Elect Biden is putting in place isdeeply knowledgeable and committed to helping all the countries ofthe region move forward as part of a Europe that is whole free andat peace. And that's important, because today this vision is inperil. The nations of the Western Balkans are suffering deeply fromthe health and economic impacts of the coronavirus pandemic.Corruption remains a serious problem, and nationalist leaderscontinue to stoke and exploit ethnic tensions. China and Russia arealso exerting new influence in the region, with Serbia inparticular the target of much anti Western propaganda. As thepandemic eases there will be an opportunity for the United Statesand Europe to help the region build back better, particularly asWestern European countries seek to bring supply chains closer tohome. And as new funds become available to invest in energydiversification and environmental protection.

59:36 Madeleine Albright: The answeris for the United States and the EU to work together to championinitiatives that help custom Bosnia and others build economic tiesto Europe and the neighborhood while also pushing for neededpolitical reforms.

1:00:00 Madeleine Albright: On Bosnia,the Dayton accords stopped a war and continue to keep the peace.But the governing arrangements are not captured by leaders amongthe three groups that negotiated the peace. They want to hold on topower even if it means holding their society back. While Bosnia isneighbors move toward EU membership, the United States and theEuropean Union must focus their efforts in Bosnia on the abuse ofgovernment and state owned enterprises. Taking away the levers ofpower that keep the current system in place.

1:05:30 Daniel Serwer: Europe and theUnited States want a post state in Bosnia, they can qualify for EUmembership. That Bosnia will be based not on ethnic power sharing,but rather on majorities of citizens electing theirrepresentatives. [?] entities as well as ethnic vetoes andrestrictions we'll need to fade. the Americans and Europeans shouldwelcome the prospect of a new Civic constitution. But no oneoutside Boston Herzegovina can reform its constitution, a popularmovement is needed. The United States along with the Europeansneeds to shield any popular movement from repression while startingthe entities with funding and redirecting it to the centralgovernment and municipalities.

1:12:07 Janusz Bugajski: Moscow viewsSerbia in particular, and the Republic of Srpska in Bosnia asuseful tools to subvert regional security and limit Westernintegration.

1:12:40 Janusz Bugajski: WesternBalkan inclusion in the Three Seas Initiative and its North Southtransportation corridor will enhance economic performance and helpprovide alternatives to dependence on Russian energy and Chineseloans.

2:00:41: Rep. Gerry Connolly (VA): Whydo you think longer term in the Balkans its Chinese influence weneed to be focused on? Janusz Bugajski:Thank youvery much for that question. Let me begin with why Russia is not alonger term danger. Russia is a country in serious decline,economic decline. Its economies size of a medium sized Europeanstate. China has the second largest economy in the world. Russiahas internal problems with its nationalities with its regions, withincreasing public unrest with increasing opposition to put in themeven be power struggles during the succession period over the nextfour years, Russia faces major internal problems. China, on theother hand, unless of course, there is opposition to the ChineseCommunist Party from within, is in a different stage. It continuesto be a very dynamic country in terms of its economic growth. Itdoesn't face the sort of internal contradictions and conflicts thatRussia does. And it's increasingly.. China's always looked at thelonger term. In other words, they don't even have to look atsuccession cycles, because of the dominance of the Communist Party.They are looking eventually to replace Russia as the major rival ofthe United States. And the best way to do that is to increase theirinfluence not only militarily in East Asia, South Asia and otherparts of the world, but economically, politically, diplomatically,culturally, and through the media and that's precisely what they'redoing, not only in Europe, but in other continents.

2:18:38 Madeleine Albright: I thinkthat democracy and economic development go together also. Becauseas I put it, people want to vote and eat.

Hearing: THE UNFOLDING CONFLICT IN ETHIOPIA, Committee on ForeignAffairs: Subcommittee on Africa, Global Health, Global HumanRights, and International Organizations, December 3, 2020

Watch on Youtube

Witnesses:

  • Yoseph Badwaza
    • Senior Advisor for Africa at Freedom House
    • Former Secretary General of Ethiopian Human Rights Council
  • Susan Stigant
    • Director of the Africa Program at the United States Instituteof Peace
    • Former program director at the National Democratic Institute,focused on South Sudan
  • Tsedale Lemma
    • Editor in Chief and Founder of Addis Standard Magazine
  • Lauren Ploch Blanchard
    • Specialist in African Affairs at the Congressional ResearchService
    • Former East Africa Program Manager at the InternationalRepublican Institute
Transcript:

35:32 Yoseph Badwaza: The devastatingdevelopments of the past four weeks have brought inmeasurable humansuffering and the destruction of livelihoods and appear to havereturned to yet another protracted civil war and nearly 30 yearsafter it emerged from its last. These tragic events have also dealta deadly blow to what would have been one of the most consequentialdemocratic transitions on the African continent.

37:09 Yoseph Badwaza: A series ofmissed opportunities in the last two and a half years led to thetragic derailment of a promising democratic experiment. A halfhearted effort at implementing reforms by a ruling partyestablishment reluctant to shape its deeply authoritarian roots.Roots stands in the way of a genuine inclusive politicalprocess.

Hearing: U.S. DEFENSE POSTURE CHANGES IN THE EUROPEAN THEATER, Committeeon Armed Services, September 30, 2020

Watch on Youtube

Witnesses:

  • Dr. James Anderson
    • Former Acting Under Secretary of Defense for Policy, Departmentof Defense (resigned the day after Trump fired DoD Secretary MarkEsper)
    • 2006-2009: Director of Middle East Policy for the Secretary ofDefense
    • 2001-2006 - Gap in LinkedIn resume
    • 2000-2001: Associate at DFI International, a multinationalconsulting firm
    • 1997-1999: Research Fellow at the Heritage Foundation
  • Lt. Gen David Allen: Director for Strategy, Plans, and Policy,Joint Chiefs of Staff
Transcript:

17:14 Dr. James Anderson: As wecontinue to implement the NDS or efforts at enhancing our Europeanposture beyond Eucom Combat Command Review, have shown recentsuccesses, including the signing of the Enhanced DefenseCooperation Agreement with Poland in August that will enable anincreased enduring US rotational presence in that country of about1000 US military personnel.

See Also
Freedom of Connection – Freedom of ExpressionMCIR 64: Interconnecting Africa: Opportunities and Obstacles Along the Way

Hearing: DEMOCRATIC BACKSLIDING IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA, Committee onForeign Affairs: Subcommittee on Africa, Global Health, GlobalHuman Rights, and International Organizations, September 30,2020

Watchon Youtube

Witnesses:

  • Christopher Fomunyoh
    • Senior Associate for Africa at the National DemocraticInstitute for International Affairs
    • Has been at NDI since 1993
    • Has worked for the Cameroon Water Corporation and CameroonAirlines Corporation
  • Dorina A. Bekoe, PhD
    • Research Staff Member at the Institute for DefenseAnalyses
  • Jon Temin
    • Director of the Africa Program at Freedom House
    • Freedom House gets most of its funding from the NationalEndowment for Democracy
    • 2014-2017: U.S. Department of State’s Policy PlanningStaff
    • Director of the U.S. Institute of Peace’s Africa Program
    • Member of the Council on Foreign Relations
    • Non-resident Senior Associate with the Center for Strategic andInternational Studies
  • Joshua Meservey
    • Senior Policy Analyst for Africa and the Middle East at theHeritage Foundation since 2015
    • Former Associate Director of the Atlantic Council
    • Former Field Team Manager for the Church World ServiceResettlement Support Center
    • Former Volunteer with the US Peace Corps
    • Former intern for the US Army Special Operations Command
    • Former Loss Prevention Coordinator for Dollar FinancialCorporation
Transcript:

7:13 Rep. Chris Smith (NJ): I fearthat 2020 may see an even greater decrease in democracy on thecontinent. Today's hearing is also timely, as elections areapproaching next month in Tanzania and the Ivory Coast, bothcountries which appear to be on a downward trajectory in terms ofgovernance and respect for civil and political rights. And I wantto note that Chairwoman bass has introduced legislation withrespect to Tanzania, and I'm very proud to be a co sponsor of itand I thank you for that leadership.

8:37 Rep. Chris Smith (NJ): Forexample, was quite obvious to outside observers in the DRC that thedeclared winner of the latest presidential election held in late2018. Felix Tshisekedi received less votes than Martin Fayulu lowbecause of a corrupt bargain between the outgoing strongman JosephKabila Tshisekedi. The Constitutional Court packed by Kabiladeclared him to be the winner. What happened next was troubling, asour State Department issued a statement that said and I quote, 'theUnited States welcomes the Congolese Constitutional Courtcertification of Felix Tshisekedi as the next president of theDRC,' which was apparently driven by a handful of diplomats,including our ambassador.

9:26 Rep. Chris Smith (NJ): Electionsin Nigeria were first postponed by sitting President Buhari andmarred by irregularities in advance of the election date, quittingarson attacks on the independent national Electoral Commissionoffices in opposition strongholds in Buhari's his removal ofSupreme Court Justice Walter Onnoghen.

10:40 Rep. Chris Smith (NJ): BeforeSudan is delisted as a state sponsor of terrorism, I also believethere must be justice for all victims of its past bad actsincluding the victims of 911, many of whom live in my home state ofNew Jersey and in my district.

14:44 Rep. Karen Bass (CA): Mostconcerning is the situation in Tanzania, which I recently addressedin House Resolution 1120 where current leadership is repressing theopposition and basic freedoms of expression and assembly in ablatant attempt to retain power.

15:00 Rep. Karen Bass (CA): We seesimilar patterns in Cote d'Ivoire as the executive branch legalizesthe deviation in democratic institutions to codify non democraticactions. We have similar concerns about Guinea and are going to bevery watchful of upcoming elections there. And in Burkina Faso, theCentral African Republic, Chad, Gabon, Ghana, Nigeria andSomalia.

15:57 Rep. Karen Bass (CA): Whatconcerns me most is the democratic backsliding is not limited toAfrica and we seem to be in a place of retreat from democracy thatI only hope is an anomaly. In Europe, we see the egregious behaviorof Belarusian president Alexander Lukashenko, who claimed successin a disputed August 9 election and sought support from extranational resources such as Russia to justify his claim topower.

17:28 Rep. Karen Bass (CA): PresidentDuterte of the Philippines is accused of lawfare, or weaponizingthe law to deter or defeat freedoms, personalities andestablishments that promote human rights, press freedoms and therule of law while also cracking down on individual freedoms.

24:39 Christopher Fomunyoh: NDI hasover three decades of technical assistance to and support fordemocratic institutions and processes in Africa and currently runsactive programs in 20 countries.

26:09 Christopher Fomunyoh: Notably,West Africa, previously commanded as a trailblazer region has seenserious backsliding, as Mali experienced a military coup, and majorcontroversies have arisen about candidacies of incumbent presidentsin Guinea, Conakry and Cote d'Ivoire. The Central Africa regionremains stocked with the three with the highest concentration ofautocratic regimes with the three longest serving presidents in theworld. In that sub region, notably Equatorial Guinea forty oneyears, Cameroon 38 years, and Congo Brazzaville 38 years.

26:50 Christopher Fomunyoh: Insouthern and East Africa, continued persecution of politicalopposition and civil society activists in Zimbabwe and similarworrying signs or patterns in Tanzania since 2016 seriouslydiminished citizen participation in politics and governance andalso stand my prospects for much needed reforms.

31:31 Dorina A. Bekoe: Mali's 2012coup took place even though there was a regularly scheduledelection just one month away. And the coup in August of this yeartook place despite the fact that in 2018 there was a presidentialelection and last year there were legislative elections.

38:44 Jon Temin: The United Statesshould consider changes to term and age limits that allow incumbentleaders to extend their time in office as essentially a coupagainst the constitution and respond accordingly. These moves byleaders who have already served two terms are an usurpation ofpower, that deny the country and its citizens the many benefits ofleadership rotation.

40:07 Jon Temin: In Sudan the longoverdue process of removing the country from the list of statesponsors of terrorism may soon conclude, but that is not enough.The United States needs to support the civilian component ofSudan's transitional government at every step of the long roadtoward democracy and do all that it can to revive Sudan'seconomy.

40:25 Jon Temin: In Ethiopia, thereare deeply concerning signs that the government is reaching fortools of repression that many hoped were relegated to history.Nonetheless, Ethiopia remains on a tentative path to democraticelections that can be transformative. In this context, the decisionby the United States to withhold development assistance fromEthiopia in a quixotic and counterproductive effort to influenceEthiopia's negotiating position concerning the grand EthiopianRenaissance Dam is bad policy that should be reversed.

41:00 Jon Temin: Nascent democratictransitions in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, the Gambia andAngola also call for strong US support.

1:10:21 Rep. Ilhan Omar (MN): I wantto start with Dr. Fomunyoh. In your testimony you discuss themassacres committed in the Anglophone region of Cameroon. Did theUnited States provide training funding or arms to the Camerooniansecurity forces who committed those massacres?

1:12:20 Rep. Ilhan Omar (MN): Did theMillennium military officers who led the recent coup [??] receiveUS military training? And if you can just say yes or no, because Ihave a few more questions and we have limited time.

1:29:23 Jon Temin: Freedom in theworld, which we do every year rates every country in the world thatincludes the United States, the United States score was decreasingbefore this administration, we have seen a slow slippage ofdemocracy in America for some time, rating based on our scores.That decrease has accelerated under this administration.

1:30:00 Jon Temin: I think part of ithas to do with freedom for journalists. I believe there's been someconcern there. Part of it has to do with corruption and some of theindications that we've seen of corrupt activity within government.I'll leave it there. We're happy to go dig into that and provideyou more detail. And I'm sure that when we look at the scores againlater this year, there will be a robust conversation on the UnitedStates.

Hearing: THE ROLE OF ALLIES AND PARTNERS IN U.S. MILITARY STRATEGY ANDOPERATIONS, Committee on Armed Services, September 23,2020

Watch on Youtube

Witnesses:

  • Christine Wormuth
    • On Joe Biden's presidential transition team
    • 2018- present: Director of the International Security andDefense Policy Center at the RAND Corporation
    • 2017-2018: Founding Director of the Adrienne Arsht Center forResilience at the Atlantic Council
    • 2017-2018: Senior Advisor for the Center for Strategic andInternational Studies
    • 2010-2014: Various DoD positions, rising to Under Secretary ofDefense for Policy
    • 2004-2009: Senior Fellow at the Center for Strategic andInternational Studies
    • 2002-2004: Principal at DFI Government Services, aninternational defense consulting firm
  • Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges
    • Center for European Policy Analysis
    • Board of Advisors for the Spirit of America (not listed onhearing bio)
    • Board of Directors is made up of CEOs of mulitnationalcorporations
    • Board of Advisors is full of corporate titans and big names,including Michelle Flournoy, Jeh Johnson, Kimberly Kagan, JackKeane, James Mattis, Stanley McChrystal, H.R. McMaster, & GeorgeShultz
    • 2014-2017: Commanding General of the US Army in Europe
  • Elbridge Colby
    • Principal and co-Founder of the Marathon Initiative
    • Formed in May 2020
    • Senior Advisor to WestExec Advisors (not listed on hearingbio)
    • Co-Founded by incoming Secretary of State Antony Blinken andMichelle Flournoy, who told the Intercept in 2018, "we help techfirms who are trying to figure out how to sell in the public sectorspace, to navigate the DOD, the intel community, lawenforcement."
    • 2018-2019: Director of the Defense Program at the Center for aNew American Security
    • Northrup Grumman is one of its biggest donors, also getsfunding from Lockheed Martin, Raytheon, Bell Helicopter, BAESystems, General Dynamics, Boeing, and DynCorp.
    • 2017-2018: Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Strategyand Force Development
    • Lead official in the creation of the 2018 National DefenseStrategy
    • 2010-2017: Center for a New American Security
    • GWB administration (not listed on his LinkedIn)
    • 2005-2006: worked with the Office of the Director of NationalIntelligence
    • 2004-2005: President GWB's WMD Commission
    • 2003: worked with the Coalition Provisional Authority inIraq
Transcript:

17:14 20:08 Lt. Gen. BenHodges: Second point of emphasis requires us to placeimportance on the greater Black Sea where. I believe the greatpower competition prevents great power conflict, failure to competeand to demonstrate interest and willingness to protect thoseinterests in all domains, power vacuums and miscalculations whichcan lead to escalation and to actual conflict. This is particularlytrue in the greater Black Sea region, where Russia is attempting tomaximize its sphere of influence. The Black Sea region should bethe place where the United States and our NATO allies and partnershold the line. The Black Sea should matter to the west in partbecause it [was to the Kremlin.] taking the initiative away fromthe Kremlin denies the ability to support the Assad regime in Syriaand then to live will reduce the flow of rich into Europe, orGeneral Breedlove called the weaponization of refugee. Limit theKremlin's ability to spread his thoughts of influence in theBalkans which is the Middle East and North Africa.

21:28 Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges: We mustrepair the relationship between Turkey and the United States. Andsee Turkey [?] as an exposed ally at the crossroads of severalregions and challenges. Turkey is essential for deterrence of theKremlin in the Black Sea region. And it is a critical both againstISIS and Iran we need to consider this relationship to be apriority, [but] condone or excuse several mistakes or bad choicesabout the Turkish Government. There are times are very quiet, butwe think long term. The current Turkish administration willeventually change. But the strategically important geography ofTurkey will never change.

23:31 Elbridge Colby: Allies andpartners are absolutely essential for the United States in a worldincreasingly defined by great power competition, above all withChina. Indeed, they lie at the very heart of the right US strategyfor this era, which I believe the Department of Defense's 2018National Defense Strategy lays out. The importance to the UnitedStates of allies and partners is not a platitude, but the contrary.For the first time since the 19th century, the United States is notfar and away the world's largest economy. More than anything else,this is due to the rise of China. And that has become very evident.Beijing is increasingly using its growing power for coercivepurposes.

24:08 Elbridge Colby: United Statesfaces a range of other potential threats, including primarily fromRussia against NATO, as well as from transnational terrorists, Iranand North Korea. In other words, there exists multiple challengesto US national security interests. Given their breadth and scope,America can no longer expect to take care of them essentiallyalone. Accordingly, we must address this widening shortfall betweenthe threats we face and the resources we have to deal with them bya much greater role for allies and partners.

24:59 Elbridge Colby: Because ofChina's power and wealth, the United States simply must play aleading role in blocking Beijing's pursuit of hegemony in Asia.This means that the US defense establishment must prioritizedealing with China and Asia and particularly vulnerable allies andpartners such as Taiwan and the Philippines.

25:24 Elbridge Colby: In particular,we will not be able to dedicate the level of resources and effortto the Middle East and Europe that we have in the past. We willtherefore need allied partners to do their part not just to helpdefend our interests and enable a concentration on Asia but todefend themselves and their interests.

26:00 Elbridge Colby: The contemporarythreats to us interest stem from China across Asia. Transnationalterrorists largely in the Middle East, Russia and Eastern Europe,Persian Gulf area and North Korea in Asia.

26:11 Elbridge Colby: Yet the UnitedStates is traditional, closest and most significant allies arelargely clustered in Western Europe in Northeast Asia. Many ofthese countries, especially Europe feel quite secure and are littlemotivated to contribute to more distant threats. This leaves wideareas such as South and Southeast Asia and the Middle East, forwhich long standing US alliances are of minimal help. The naturalway to rectify this is for the United States to add partners andform necessary alliances to help address these gaps.

35:13 Elbridge Colby: In this effort,though, we should be very careful to distinguish between expandingour formal alliances or [?] alliances from expanding ourpartnerships, the former should be approached derivatively whilethe latter can be approached more liberally, when we extend analliance commitment or something tantamount to it as in the case ofTaiwan, we tie our credibility to that nation's fate. We shouldtherefore be [cheery] about doings. In light of this, we shouldseek to expand our partnerships wherever possible. In particular,we should focus on increasing them in South and Southeast Asia andthe Pacific Islands, where China otherwise might have an open fieldto [subordances] and add them to its pro hegemonium coalition.

27:41 Elbridge Colby: I do not see anear term need to add any allies to the US roster. But I do thinkwe will increasingly need to consider this as the shadow of Chinesepower darkens over the region.

27:53 Elbridge Colby: Our effort toexpand our network of allies and partners should really be focusedon states with shared threat perceptions. It has become somethingof a common place that shared values form the bedrock of ouralliances. It is true that such values help allies, but the mostuseful alliances generally proceed from shared fears. The bestmotivator to fight is self defense. The states that have a sharedinterest in preventing Chinese or Russian or Iranian hegemonyselves have a natural alignment with our own. This is true whetheror not they are democracies.

29:00 Elbridge Colby: In Asia, giventhe scale proposed by Beijing, we should concentrate most of ourallies like Japan, South Korea, the Philippines and Taiwan onreadying to defend themselves alongside US Armed Forces and provideaccess to US forces in the event of a contingency.

29:16 Elbridge Colby: Meanwhile, weshould assist partners like Vietnam, Singapore, Indonesia, withwhatever means available to enable their defense against an evermore powerful China while concurrently seeking greater access andlogistics support for US and other allied forces.

29:39 Elbridge Colby: Europe Finally,the overall us goal should be while preserving the fundamental uscommitment to NATO's defense to have Europeans especially innorthern and eastern Europe shoulder more of the burden ofdefending the Alliance from Russia assault. The reality is thatgiven the stakes and consequences, the United States mustprioritize Asia. United States must therefore economize in itssecond theater Europe.

35:13 Elbridge Colby: And move awayfrom using these tools as leverage for key partners for domesticpolitical reform or secondary geopolitical objectives. UnitedStates should always of course, stand proudly for free governmentthat treats its people with dignity. We must keep our eye on theprize though China is the primary challenge to our interest in theworld, including our government, both at home and abroad. Our toppriority must therefore be to block its gaining predominance inAsia, which is a very real prospect. This means strengtheningstates in the region against Chinese power, whether or not they aremodel democracies.

35:15 Rep. Adam Smith (WA): When weshould we just say, look, we're not going to worry about yourdomestic politics. We want to build the Alliance, however possible.How would we deal with extreme human rights abuses, as are allegedin the Philippines in terms of extra judicial killings, or in thecase of India, and of course, we're dealing with this with Turkeyand Europe as well, as you know, doing the arm sales with Russia,should we significantly back off on our sort of sanctions policyfor those things? And if so, how do we signal that without withoutundermining our credibility?

40:55 Elbridge Colby: In a sense, whatwe're going to need to do to leverage this greater power of thisnetwork, you know, allies, partners, whatever their role is goingto be interoperability, the ability to work to different standardsto communicate with each other. That's partially a technicalproblem and an equipment problem, but a lot of it is human trainingand an organizational issue. And Taiwan, I think I'm veryenthusiastic about the arms sales to Taiwan. And I know that onewas recently reported, I hope it goes through because it's the kindof equipment that we want to see this kind of A2AD denial kind ofcapabilities to Taiwan, but actually, where I think would be reallyvaluable to move forward with. And that's a sensitive issue, but Ithink this would be within the context of our trade policy wouldpersonally be on training, you know, and that's something we couldthink about with Vietnam as well. Obviously, the Indians have avery sophisticated military, but they're maybe we can offer theretoo. So I think that's a real sort of force multiplier.

42:00 Rep. Mac Thornberry (TX):Turkeys geography, history, critical role is always going to beimportant is certainly valid. And yet, not only are there humanrights and governance issues, the current leader of Turkey haspolicies that contradict the, in many ways the best interests ofthe United States. So, take that specific example. We don't want tomake enemies of Turkey forever. But yet, what do we do now? To topreserve that future when there's a different government, but yetmake clear or in some way help guide them on a better policypath?

57:50 Christine Wormuth: We need tomake adjustments to our posture in the region to be able to betterdeal with China. And so the announcement by Palau, for example,that it's willing to host US airfields and bases could be quitehelpful to us. Even though they're relatively small. We do need todiversify our footprint.

1:24:52 Christine Wormuth: Thechallenge is that the many of the countries in the indo Pacificdon't want to have to choose between the United States and China.They want to engage with China for very clear economic interests,while most of them lean towards the United States for securityinterests, and I think they're trying to sort of thread thatneedle.

1:32:07 Christine Wormuth: Turkey is avery challenging geostrategic problem. I was in the Obamaadministration when we were fighting ISIS, and we knew there wastension between the necessity to have partners on the ground andthe Syrian Democratic Forces were what we had. We knew Turkey hadissues with that. In my experience, however, the United Statesworked very hard and very closely with Turkey to try to assuagetheir concerns and nothing was ever enough for them. So we do havea challenge, they are very important in terms of where they arelocated, but the authoritarianism that Erdogan has turned to isconcerning. So I think we have to keep the dialogue open andcontinue to try to keep turkey inside the fold, but at the sametime, communicate that doing whatever they want is not acceptable.And the the S400 for example, is a key example of that.

1:34:07 Christine Wormuth: AFRICOM’sZero Based review, I hope will shed light on which kinds ofactivities are helping us and helping our African partners.

1:35:36 Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges: The UK,France, Germany, Italy, Spain all have extensive efforts going onin Africa. So this is an opportunity once again, where we can workwith allies to achieve what our objectives are.

1:40:00 Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges: What forsure brings a lot of military capability air landed forces to the alot and that if for some reason, you know that it would have to befilled by us or the state or other allied to then that's a problemright? Sorry. But more importantly is control the strokes that canhelp the blacks in the Mediterranean. And so having a NATO ally hascontrol and sovereignty over the strait we have the mantra.

Hearing: Stemming a Receding Tide: Human Rights and Democratic Values inAsia, Committee on Foreign Affairs: Subcommittee on Asia, thePacific, and Nonproliferation, September 22, 2020

Watch onYoutube

Witnesses:

  • Derek Mitchell
    • President of the National Democratic Institute
    • Returned to NDI in September 2018 after leaving in 1997
    • 2012-2016: Former US Ambassador to the Republic of the Union ofMyanmar (Burma)
    • 2011-2012: U.S. Department of State’s first SpecialRepresentative and Policy Coordinator for Burma
    • 2009-2011: Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense,Asian and Pacific Security Affairs (APSA)
    • 2001-2009: Senior Fellow and Director of the Asia Division ofthe International Security Program at the Center for Strategic andInternational Studies (CSIS)
    • 1997-2001: Special Assistant for Asian and Pacific Affairs inthe Office of the Secretary of Defense
    • 1993-1997: Senior Program Officer for Asia and the formerSoviet Union at the National Democratic Institute
    • 1986-1988: Foreign policy assistant for Sen. Ted Kennedy
  • Dr. Alyssa Ayres
    • Senior Fellow for India, Pakistan, and South Asia at theCouncil on Foreign Relations
    • Consultant for the Japan Bank for InternationalCooperation
    • Senior Advisor for McLarty Associates
    • A global consultant firm "at home in corporate board rooms &government cabinet rooms, anywhere in the world"
    • Member of the United States Institute of Peace
    • 2010-2013: Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for SoutheastAsia
    • 2008-2010: Founding director of the India and South Asiapractice at McLarty Asssociates
    • 2007-2008: Special Assistant to the Undersecretary of State forPolitical Affairs
  • Daniel Twining
    • President of the International Republican Institute since2017
    • Picked by outgoing President, Sen. John McCain
    • 2009-2016: Former director of the Asia Program at the GermanMarshall Fund
    • 2007-2009: GWB State Department Policy Planning staffer
    • 2001-2004: Foreign Policy Advisor to Sen. John McCain
Transcript:

16:12 Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges: Last year Iintroduced the bipartisan Cambodia democracy act which passed theHouse overwhelmingly, it would impose sanctions on those inCambodia responsible for undermining democratic rule of law in thecountry. We must be especially cognizant of democracies in Asia indanger of backsliding into autocracy, with China's help with theiralternative to Western democracies, and that is Chinese socialismwith Chinese characteristics that is communism, regardless of howthey paint it and try to rename it.

21:10 Derek Mitchell: For nearly fourdecades, my organization, the National Democratic Institute,working alongside our partners at the International RepublicanInstitute, and the National Endowment for Democracy has assistedthe spread and institutionalization of democracy around the world.Let me say at the start that we can only do this work thanks to thesustained bipartisan support of Congress, including from thissubcommittee. So for that we are truly grateful.

21:50 Derek Mitchell: Today NDImaintains nearly a dozen offices in the Indo-Pacific region. Andlast week we just received clearance from the Taiwan government toopen an office in Taipei, which we will do soon.

30:07 Dr. Alyssa Ayres: Sri Lankaafter a five year period of improvement is now moving in the otherdirection with the return of the Rajapaksa government. The newpolitical configuration will not pursue progress on reconciliationand accountability for the end of the Civil War, and the newlyelected parliament is already hard at work, the constitutionalamendment to expand presidential powers.

34:21 Daniel Twining: Beyond China thepast year has seen countries once viewed as bright spots fordemocracy like Malaysia and Sri Lanka, regress due to politicalinfighting, personality politics and failure to deliver promisedreforms.

1:48:50 Dr. Alyssa Ayres: I do believethat the creation of the DFC is important. It is my understandingthat it is not quite up and running 100%. So we have yet to reallysee what it can do as a potential alternate to these kinds ofinfrastructure under writings. The other piece of the DFC is thatis it in part designed to help crowd in private sector engagementand private sector investments. So that's another part of thestory. I think we may need more time before we're able to see howeffective this mechanism can be.

1:49:22 Dr. Alyssa Ayres: I would notethat we also had another very effective source of US governmentassistance that depends on, his premise on good governanceindicators. And that's the Millennium Challenge Corporation. And Iwould just caution that in the South Asia region, we have now seentwo examples in Nepal and in Sri Lanka, were the long process ofengaging toward a Millennium Challenge compact agreement, largeinvestments, about 500 million in each case towards transportationand power infrastructure. These have actually been held up in bothof those countries because of political concerns. The Nepaligovernment doesn't want to be part of the US-Indo Pacific strategyor feel that it is somehow being brought into the Indo-Pacificstrategy. The Rajapaksa government is suspicious of the US MCC. SoI would just offer those two examples of cases where we've got aterrific tool, but it's run into some challenges for politicalreasons and the countries of concern.

1:50:29 Daniel Twining: Thank you,Congressman, you've been such a leader, including with yourCambodia democracy act. And you know, that's a reminder that we dohave the tools and, and leverage. The Europeans in Cambodia havesuspended trading privileges that they had offered to Cambodia.Cambodia is very reliant on our GSP still. So some of theseeconomic instruments matter in both a negative sense, but also in apositive sense. When countries do well, we should be working withthem on new trade and financial arrangements, the Chinese do comein and do this in their own way. And we should get back to that asa country. Sir, you mentioned, do we withdraw support when acountry backslides, on democracy? You know, I would argue that mostof our support for country should not go directly to theirgovernments, should go to independent civil society, free media,independent institutions and not just go into a central coffer thatdisappears. In the past, we've gotten a lot smarter about this as acountry, but in the past, a lot of us development assistancedisappeared because we were giving it to friendly autocracies insome cases, who did not have any means of accounting for it. Solet's make sure that we invest in these democracy and governanceinstruments because we want to make sure that US taxpayer money isbeing used well.

Hearing: U.S. ENGAGEMENT IN THE INDO-PACIFIC AND BEYOND, Committee onForeign Relations, September 17, 2017

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Witnesses:

  • Julie Chung
    • Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary for Western HemisphereAffairs at the State Department
  • Philip T. Reeker
    • 2019 to present: Acting Assistant Secretary of State forEuropean and Eurasian Affairs
    • 2017-2019: Civilian Deputy to the Commander of the US EuropeanCommand
    • 2014-2017:Principal Officer and Consul General at the USConsulate General in Milan, Italy
    • 2011-2014: Deputy Assistant Secretary of State fo rEuropean andEurasian Affairs
    • 2008-2011: US Ambassador to Macedonia
    • 2007-2008: Counselor of Public Affairs at the US Embassy inIraq
    • 2004-2007: Deputy Chief of Mission at the US Embassy inHungary
    • 1999-2004: Spokesman for the US State Dept
  • David R. Stilwell
    • Assistant Secretary for East Asian and Pacific Affairs at theState Department
Transcript:

17:44 David R. Stilwell: For years, wein the international community credited Beijing's commitments thatfacilitating China's entry into the rules based international orderwould lead to increasing domestic reform and opening. Beijing'spersistent flouting of these commitments has shattered thoseillusions. It is now clear to us and to more and more countriesaround the world that PRC foreign and security policy seeks toreshape the international environment around the narrow interestsand authoritarian values of a single beneficiary. That is theChinese Communist Party.

22:19 David R. Stilwell: We sincerelyappreciate congressional leadership in establishing the new counterChina influence fund in fiscal year 2020 Appropriations Bill. Thisvery important provision provides the department with a flexiblemechanism that will bolster our efforts to strengthen our partnersresiliency to Chinese malign influence worldwide. The initial roundof CCIF funding solicitation resulted in over 400 projectsubmissions from around the globe, with demand far outstripping theappropriate funding.

29:57 Philip T. Reeker: By usingplatforms like the One Belt One Road initiative, the ChineseCommunist Party endeavors to create dependencies and cultivateclient state relationships through the 17 Plus One initiative whichinvolves 12 countries that are both NATO and EU members primarilyin Central and Eastern Europe, China aims to achieve access andownership over valuable transportation hubs, criticalinfrastructure, ports and industries.

31:09 Philip T. Reeker: Usingauthorities granted by legislation members of this committeeintroduced, as mentioned the bipartisan Build Act and the EuropeanEnergy Security and Diversification Act, we've been able to beginleveraging the New Development Finance Corporation to try tocatalyze key investments in strategic projects. Most notable I'dpoint to Secretary Pompeo. His pledge at the Munich SecurityConference earlier this year of $1 billion, a commitment to theThree Seas Initiative in the Czech Republic which Secretary Pompeovisited just last month, they have transformed from a target ofChinese influence to a leader in the European awakening.

33:29 Philip T. Reeker: AlthoughChina's GDP is about eight times the size of Russia's, Russiaremains the primary military threat to Europe and the strategicpriority for most of our allies and partners, particularly those inCentral and Eastern Europe. Russia and China are more closelyaligned strategically than at any point since the 1950s. And we seegrowing cooperation across a range of diplomatic, military,economic and information activities.

46:15 Julie Chung: In terms of[cepheus], and investment screening, we have extensive engagementsin the region. We have been sending technical delegations tocountries in the region to explain how public procurement processesand transparent processes work. We have helped governments buildthat capacity through the America Crece initiative. We have 10 mouse now signed with countries throughout the region. And that'spart of the the tool to use in addressing the corruption issuesthat China is bringing to the region. How do we ensure thecountries have the right tools in place, the practices in place,the procurement practices and regulatory framework to the privatesector companies want to come and invest in those countries andensure they have a level playing field to be working through theAmerica Crece initiative.

47:17 Julie Chung: DFC has been awonderful tool and resource that we've been able to now utilizemore than ever, in from the former OPEX utilities, not expandingthat broader base in Latin America and the Caribbean. So DFC in ourregion has already invested and has pledged to invest $12 billionin just the Western Hemisphere alone, and in Central America, $3billion. So it's already invested in Central America, in ElSalvador, for instance, on an LNG project, and other projects thatare forthcoming.

1:17:16 Philip T. Reeker: Three SeasInitiative was developed by countries dozen countries in theCentral and Eastern European region to provide alternativesparticularly in a north-south direction for trade andinfrastructure, and we have stepped in to support the Three Seasnot as a member, but as an interested partner. And Secretary Pompeooutlined, as I mentioned, that the development Finance Corporationis offering up to a billion dollars in matching investment fundsfor opportunities throughout that region.

1:35:00 Julie Chung: Taiwan and theUnited States are working together in Latin America. So theyannounced financing to provide SME loan support for Latin AmericanCentral American region through the kabe. The Central American Bankof Government Integration. So that's one example of where we'reproviding that funding into the region. There's also a $26 millionloan that DFCS provided to provide telecom towers in Peru andEcuador 500 telecom towers, and this addresses both our strategicinterest as well as a 5G telecommunications interest that whereChina is trying to take over and really control that thatsector.

1:50:29 Julie Chung: In terms of DFCand working on digital authoritarianism, there's no better examplein the region then in Maduro's regime, the authoritarian regime ofMaduro and working in close concert with China, and China's ZTE haslong had a relationship with the Maduro regime and providing thecarnet de patria which spies on civil society and oppositionleaders and determines how who gets what food allocations withinthat country. And so right now, of course, we are not engaging inDFC in Venezuela. But in a democratic future. When we have ademocratic transition in that country. We would love to bring DFCinto it and help rebuild.

Hearing: THE HEALTH, ECONOMIC, AND POLITICAL CHALLENGES FACING LATIN AMERICAAND THE CARIBBEAN, Committee on Foreign Affairs: Subcommitteeon the Western Hemisphere, Civilian Security, and Trade, September15, 2020

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Witnesses:

  • Monica de Bolle, PhD
    • Professor of Latin American Studies at the School of AdvancedInternational Studies at Johns Hopkins University
    • Senior Fellow at the Peterson Institute for InternationalEconomics
    • Senior Advisor with International Capital Strategies (notlisted on her hearing bio)
    • Former professor of macroeconomics at the Pontifical CatholicUniverstiy of Rio de Janeiro
    • Managing partner of Galanto MBB Consultants, a macroeconomicconsultancy firm based in Brazil
    • Former economist at the International Monetary Fund
  • Michael Camilleri
    • Director of the Peter D. Bell Rule of Law Program forInter-American Dialogue
    • Senior Advisor at WestExec Advisors since February 2018 (notlisted on his hearing bio)
    • The firm founded by the incoming Secretary of State, AntonyBlinken
    • Former Western Hemisphere adviser on Obama's Secretary ofState's Policy Planning Staff and Director for Andean Affairs atthe National Security Council from 2012-2017
    • Former human rights specialist at the Organization of AmericanStates
    • Former senior staff attorney at the Center for Justice andInternational Law
    • Member of the Council on Foreign Relations
  • Eric Farnsworth
    • Vice President of the Council of the Americas since 2003
    • Former Managing Director of ManattJones Global Strategies, aconsulting firm from 1998-2005
    • Former member of the global public policy division ofBristol-Meyers Squibb, a multinational pharmaceutical company
    • Former Senior Policy Advisor to President Bill Clinton from1995-1998
    • Former Foreign Affairs Officer at the State Department from1990-1995
    • Former Services and Investment Industry Analyst at the Officeof the US Trade Representatives in 1992
Transcript:

25:10 Rep. Francis Rooney (FL): USinternational development Finance Corporation will play a crucialrole in investments in the region, which I believe can help therecovery and also as long term economic well being

2:08:13 Eric Farnsworth: Notably,Washington is taking actions to build a forward looking economicrecovery agenda. Among them the Americas Crece, a program announcedat the end of 2019 and enhanced financing facilities through thenewly minted Development Finance Corporation.

2:09:21 Eric Farnsworth: EconomicRecovery must be at the forefront of the pending summit of theAmericas. Latin America already suffers from one of the lowestlevels of intra regional trade worldwide, for example. The gainsfrom expanded intra regional trade would establish sounder economicfooting while helping to moderate the cyclical nature ofcommodities markets, as well. Nations across Latin America and theCaribbean can focus more attention on improving their respectiveinvestment climates. Mr. Rooney, the ranking minority member hasmade this case effectively many, many times. For its part, theUnited States should come to the 2021 summit with a robust economicexpansion initiative. Absent a massive economic financial packageof debt relief and new lending, renewal of a hemispheric trade andinvestment agenda will be the best way to promote regionalrecovery, support US and regional economic interests and renew aregional strategic posture that China has begun to challenge.

2:11:03 Julie Chung: So how does theUnited States continue to advocate democracy in Venezuela? I saysham of legislative election and the end of Guaido's mandate arerapidly approaching. How do we do that? Well, I don't if know if[inaudible] wanted this question.

2:13:03 Eric Farnsworth: There arehuge amounts of illicit money being made and moved in Venezuelathrough illegal activities, illegal gold mining, drug traffickingand the like. And one of the best ways I think to get at the regimeis to stanch the flow of those financial resources. And frankly, toidentify and to freeze those funds and then also to begin to seizethem and take them back at once the economic incentives for illegalbehavior are removed or at least reduced, perhaps the politicaldynamic in Venezuela will change that people will begin to see thatthey really have to find a way out from this mess frankly, thatNicolas Maduro has created.

2:14:14 Monica de Bolle, PhD: It willbe very hard to get other Latin American countries to focus on theissues in Venezuela given that they have runaway epidemics in theirown countries. And we shouldn't lose sight of the fact that amongstthe 10 countries that have the largest or the highest per capitadeath rate in the world right now are all in Latin America.

2:16:00 Michael Camilleri:Unfortunately, the Guaido interim government, the the NationalAssembly, the G4 are not in the same position they were in a yearor your half ago, the balance of forces on the ground in Venezuelahas tilted in favor of the Maduro regime. And so that will thatwill require us to calibrate our own efforts and invite view weneed to be realistic about the fact that some sort of negotiatedpathway to free and fair elections ultimately is the most realisticand the most peaceful, frankly, path out of the the awful situationthat the country finds itself in.

2:23:21 Monica de Bolle, PhD: Apartfrom corruption, which is certainly a problem in the oil sector aswell as in other parts of the Venezuelan economy, there's also beendramatic underinvestment in the oil industry, which has now led thecountry to this situation where, rather than being a very big netoil exporter, as they used to be in the 1980s in the 1990s, they'venow become a net oil importer, which shows exactly how much you cansquander your country's resources and just basically run an economyto the ground.

2:33:58 Eric Farnsworth: And whatwe're seeing is some concern in the investor community aboutactions that have been taken perhaps on the backtracking on thereform agenda around energy in particular, but in other sectors aswell, canceling contracts that have been previously agreed, andsome other actions like that and the investment community is verycautious.

Hearing: PROTECTING DEMOCRACY DURING COVID–19 IN EUROPE AND EURASIA AND THEDEMOCRATIC AWAKENING IN BELARUS, Committee on Foreign Affairs:Subcommittee on Europe, Eurasia, Energy, and the Environment,September 10, 2020

Watch onYoutube

Witnesses:

  • Douglas Rutzen
    • President and CEO of the International Center forNot-for-Profit Law
    • Professor at Georgetown University Law Center
    • Advisory Board member of the United Nations Democracy Fund
  • Therese Pearce Laanela
    • Head of Electoral Processes at the International Institute forDemocracy and Electoral Assistance
  • Joanna Rohozinska
    • Resident Program Director for Europe at the Beacon Project atthe International Republican Institute
    • Senior program officer for Europe at the National Endowment forDemocracy at least as of 2019. She has worked there for about adecade
  • Jamie Fly
    • Senior Fellow at the German Marshall Fund and Co-Director ofthe Alliance for Security Democracy
    • Senior Advisor to WestExec Advisors
    • Co-founded by incoming Secretary of State, Antony Blinken
    • Former President and CEO of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty in2019 & 2020
    • Former counselor for foreign and national security affairs forSen. Marco Rubio from 2013-2017
    • Former Executive Director of the Foreign Policy Initiative from2009-2013
    • Former member of GWB's National Security Council from2008-2009
    • Former member of GWB's Office of the Secretary of Defense from2005-2008
Transcript:

53:30 Joanna Rohozinska: Lukshenkomust be held responsible for his choices and actions. Word matingstrategies with transatlantic allies should be priority and to callfor dialogue, immediate release of political prisoners and supportfor the political opposition's demands for holding elections underinternational supervision and beginning negotiations on a Lukshenkotransition.

53:56 Joanna Rohozinska: Support fordemocracy requires patience as well as long term commitment andvision. This has been made possible with the support of Congress toIRI and the family. Thank you and I look forward to yourquestions.

1:03:05 Therese Pearce Laanela:Institutions that are as strong...What we are seeing... those thatare able to safeguard and against disinformation for example, theyare working in innovative ways because this isn't a challenge thatexisted really as much before social media and one of the thingsthat we're seeing is a kind of interagency cooperation, apartnership between private and public. That's really hasn't beenseen before. Let me just take Australia as a case, but the workingtogether with social media companies and government agencies andsecurity agencies and election officials for rapid reaction toanything that comes in and that kind of seamless communicationbetween agencies, that is one of the ways in which we canprotect.

1:04:15 Jamie Fly: We have tools.Radio Free Europe, Radio Liberty has a Bella Russian languageservice Radio Svoboda which has significant of followers insideBelarus. The problem is that Lukashenko like many otherauthoritarians have realized that when they face significantpressure, they should take the country offline. And Belarusianauthorities have done that on a regular basis, which makes it muchmore difficult to communicate and allow information to spreadfreely. So what they really need outlets like Svoboda and otherindependent media are access to internet circumvention tools, whichare also funded by the State Department and the US Agency forGlobal Media.

1:09:57 Douglas Rutzen: China isproviding surveillance technology to countries includingKyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Serbia. They also provideda $2 billion dollar loan to Hungry to construct a railway whichHungry then classified as a state secret in terms of theconstruction.

1:19:28 Brian Fitzpatrick: In 2013, in2000, and he saw large scale protests in Ukraine, following whatmany believed to be a falsification of elections by their federalofficials. So my first question for the entire panel, do youbelieve that Belarus protests could lead to a revolution similar tothe one we saw in Ukraine and secondarily, on Tuesday, PresidentLukashenko, refused to rule out the idea of holding new elections,and acknowledge that he may have overstayed his time at office,whether or not you see revolutions similar to Ukraine, do you thinkthat these protests could lead to an actual change in leadership?Joanna Rohozinska: So I take it as a question tome. I mean, I think that things have been building up and I wouldsay that with this similarity to Ukraine was that there was also adeep seated frustration with corruption. Here, it's less aboutcorruption. But it's still meets, where you have the accountabilityand transparency aspect of it that I was mentioning in mytestimony. And I think that the frustration with the lack ofresponsive government and being treated like animals, frankly, iswhat they say, is what finally boiled over, but there's been,there's been an uptick in protests in Belarus, if you watch thesekinds of things over the past two years, over the parasite tax, forexample, which was also was a special tax that was put onunemployment, and on to penalize people who are unemployed, istrying to target civic activists, but it ended up reaching farfarther than that. So you can see things percolating below thesurface for quite a long time. Now. You never know when it's goingto blow. Here, I think that there was just the COVID, underlayeverything and it mobilized such a broad swath of society, that thetrigger event was finally the elections, which again, demonstratinga degree of hubris they decided not to put off right, they figuredthat holding the elections at the beginning of August was the bestthing to do, because there is always a low torque turnout and allthis, frankly, because people tend to go out to the countryside. Sothey simply miscalculated. They did not understand how the peoplewere feeling. And here, you do have a similarity with Ukraine, Ithink. And in terms of in terms of the other questions to goingforward? No, you have to appreciate that this is a country that'snever experienced democracy ever. Which means that even thedemocratic opposition leaders basically know it from textbooks,they don't know what from firsthand practice. And, Lukashenkohimself, ironically, has been supporting the notion of sovereigntyand independence in the face of the Russian state for the pastcouple of years. And he only changed his tune a couple of weeksago, when he started getting backed into a corner. And in terms of,you know, his promises and calling new elections, I would be wary.He does not have a particularly good track record of followingthrough on promises. And so I would probably take that as a lessonlearned and be extremely cautious. I personally think he's justbuying time. Because he also said that he would consider holdingthe elections after introducing constitutional changes and theconstitutional changes that he's proposing is to introduce termlimits. So I mean, he's still looking at the succession. Heunderstands that this is the end of his time in office. I don'tknow if he wants to do that right, exactly now, however,understanding that this would have been his last term anyways,you're probably preparing for an exit strategy.

1:23:00 Joanna Rohozinska: I wouldcertainly invest in looking at quality early parliamentaryelections as being much more significant. Because once you turn thehouse, once you turn the parliament and then at least you startbuilding up a degree of political capital that can start carryingforward into into the governance.

1:52:37 Therese Pearce Laanela: Yourpeople are excellent. I really want to say that I'm calling in fromSweden. I'm not American myself. But I have worked in this businessfor 28 years working in different countries in really toughsituations. And some of the best experts out there are fromorganizations that are very close to those of you when you'renormally working in Washington. So the United Nations as well basedin New York, but also organizations like IFIS, NDI, our colleaguesfrom IRI they are doing excellent work supported by USA ID. So andthey've kind of got it figured out how to support institutions forthe long term, so you can trust the people that you aresupporting.

Hearing: U.S.-CHINA RELATIONS AND ITS IMPACT ON NATIONAL SECURITY ANDINTELLIGENCE IN A POST–COVID WORLD, House Permanent SelectCommittee on Intelligence, July 1, 2020

Watch onYoutube

Witnesses:

  • Dr. Tanvi Madan – Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy, The BrookingsInstitution
  • Dr. Evan Medeiros – Penner Family Chair in Asian Studies andCling Family Distinguished Fellow, School of Foreign Service,Georgetown University
  • Mr. Orville Schell – Arthur Ross Director, Center on US-ChinaRelations, Asia Society
  • Ms. Meredith Sumpter
    • 2020 October: Hired as the CEO of the Coalition for InclusiveCapitalism with the Vatican
    • 2017-2020: Head of Research Strategy and Operations, EurasiaGroup
    • 2014-2016: Director at multinational consulting firm BowerGroupAsia
Transcript:

55:45 Ms. Meredith Sumpter: Beijingdecision makers believe that their state directed economic systemis the foundation of the livelihood of their political system. Inother words, we have been spending our energies trying to forceChina to change and China is not willing to change an economicmodel that it believes underpins its political longevity.

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